Gary Greene's Real Estate Blog

Houston Market Update First Quarter YTD 2008

Posted on April 15, 2008

First Quarter2008 Single-family home sales

YTD Review of the Market for Houston and surrounding areas:
 
[This report includes data on major submarkets of Houston with information supplied by the Houston Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service and written by Toni Nelson, Director of Strategic Initiatives.  For geographical boundaries of the specific submarkets, go to: http://blog.garygreene.com/images/mlsBoundariesMap_01.JPG 
 

Houston Overall Statistics March YTD 2008

         Single-family home sales were 13% less than found in First Quarter YTD 2007 sales with 13,240 MLS recorded sold units, In First Quarter YTD 2005, there were 12,504 MLS recorded home sales indicating that although the market is down from last year, it is up by 6% from what is currently known as the third greatest year in Houston history.

         Dollar volume sold in MLS through First Quarter 2008 is $2,667,682,458 which is a 10% decline in dollar volume sold over last year.  However, dollar volume is currently up by 20% from YTD 2005.  

         Average sales price YTD is $201,487 or 3% greater than this time last year.  And how far we have come from 2005 where the average sales price was $176,544, or 14% less than current.

         Active listings are up by 10% with 35,053 single-family homes on the market.  In 2005, there were 29,339 single-family homes on the market or 19% fewer homes than currently found.

         Contracts written, which represent 2008 First Quarter buyer demand in Houston are down 12% over this time last year with 11,109 homes that have gone under contract.

         Average sales price per square foot is $87, which is the same as last year. 

         Days on the Market, a statistic that is good if it is declining has gone up by 11% since last year and the average time to sell a home in Houston is 90 days.  

The Houston market sales year-to-date seems to be one of extremes, particularly in sales closed by price class.  The number of homes sales in

 

1.       homes priced below $79,999 are up,

2.     homes priced between $80,000 - $599,999 are down in number of units sold since last year [except $300,000-$399,999 is even with last year]

3.     homes priced between $600,000-$699,999 are up 2% over last year

4.     homes priced between $700,000-899,999 are down over last year

5.     homes priced from $900,000-$999,999 are up by 9% and

6.     The largest increase of any price class above $80,000 is homes priced $1,000,000 and more.  There has been a 28% increase in home sales in this price class since last year.  The high-end and low-end of the housing market is driving buyer demand more than any other price class.  It is unusual for Houston to see this type of price swing, which has atypically been like our average sales price depicts a predominantly middle market.

         Although the Houston market in the first quarter is not as strong as last year, it is one of the most positive markets in the nation and consistently at the top of nationwide lists in terms of value for the dollar and a great place to invest.

 

Atascocita Area 1

 

  • Single-family home sales in the Atascocita area have declined 13.4% over March YTD 2007.  The market has experienced 504 home sales since the beginning of the year and last year there were 582 units sold during the same time frame.
  • Contracts initiated this year are 7.91% less than those found a year ago.  There were 512 units that went under contract in March and last March there were 556. 
  • Listings are up by 7.36% and there are currently 1,386 units on the market as compared to 1,291 last year.
  • Median sales price YTD has declined 2.33% and currently stands at $146,500 and last year the median sales price was $150,000.  Median sales price is where half the homes sold above and half the homes sold below.
  • The Atascocita area currently has 6.2 months of inventory.  Months-of-inventory is an indicator of the status of the market.  Currently, if no new listings came on the market, it would take 6.2 months to deplete the current supply.  Rather than being a buyer or seller market, Atascocita currently represents a balanced market, where neither the buyer nor the seller has an advantage.
  • In March 2008, the Atascocita area was #8 on the Houston Hotness Index because 13.3% of its entire inventory went under contract during that one month.  Current market data indicates the market is one of the top ten hottest selling areas in Houston. 

Bear Creek Area 8

 

        Single-family home sales in Bear Creek experienced a 27.6% decline in the area in the First Quarter. There were 446 MLS recorded home sales, and in the First Quarter 2007, there were 616...

        Listings are up ever so slightly in the Bear Creek Market area by 1.53% over this time last year with 1,059 homes listed and on the market.

        The most important metric revealing current buyer demand is contracts pending.  They are down by 152 units with 354 homes receiving contracts in the First Quarter.  First Quarter contracts written last year registered at 506.

        The median sales price is higher than last years and currently stands at $146,380, an increase of 2.02%.  Last year, the median sales price was $143,480.

        The Bear Creek Market area currently has 5.2 months of inventory, which is a considerable increase in supply. Last year, the Bear Creek Market had 4.2 months of inventory.  This is still a sellers market and one of the best times ever to sell a home in Bear Creek!

        In March 2008, 11.1% of all listings in the Bear Creek area received a contract during the month, according to the Houston Hotness Index published by the Houston Association of Realtors for March 2008. 

Clear Lake Area 7

         Clear Lake was ranked #2 on the March Houston Hotness Index because 14.4% of all its listings went under contract during that one month!  The hotness ratio is pending sales [buyer demand] as a percent of listings.

         Clear Lake single-family home sales have declined by 64 units over first Quarter 2008 with 408 homes sold as compared to 472 last year.

         Contracts written and scheduled to close year-to-date are 53 units behind last year for a total of 314 MLS recorded pending sales.

         Homes listed and on the market in Clear Lake are up by 3 units or .40% from this time last year with 750 single-family homes on the market today as compared to 747 last year.

         Clear Lakes Average sales price is up by 4.87% and currently stands at $187,339, as compared to $178,637 last year during the same time frame.  The median sales price is also up slightly and currently stands at $149,900, representing a 3.38% increase over March YTD 2007s $145,000.

         Days on the market register at 83, which represents 5 more days it took to sell a home than it did last year.

 

The Heights Area 9

 

         The Heights single-family home sales have declined by 93 units over March YTD 2007 with 433 homes sold in 2008 as compared to 526 last year, a 17.68% decline.

         Contracts written and pending to close year-to-date are 85 units behind last year for a total of 305 MLS recorded pending sales.

         Homes listed and on the market in The Heights are up by 8.6% from this time last year with 1,314 single-family homes on the market today as compared to 1,210 last year.

         The Heights Average sales price is up by 13.04% and currently stands at $250,693, as compared to $221,775 last year during the same time frame.  Median price, where half the homes sold above and half the homes sold below the median price is up 22.88% and it is currently $239,000.

         Days on the market register at 97, which is 20 days more than it took to sell a home last year.

         The Heights was ranked #32 on the March Houston Hotness Index because 8.2% of all its listings went under contract during that one month!

 

North Area 12

        Sales in the North Market area in the First Quarter of 2008 have declined by 37 units in comparison to 2007.  The area recorded 416 closed single-family home sales and in 2007 experienced 453.

        Listings are up in the North Market area by 6.23% over this time last year with 1,126 homes listed and on the market.

        Contracts pending are up by .47% with 425 homes receiving contracts in the First Quarter of 2008.  Contracts pending in the First Quarter of last year registered at 423.

        Average sales price is slightly higher than last years average sales price and currently stands at $109,374 representing a decrease of 5.55%.  Last year, average sales price was $115,798.  The median price where half the homes sold above and half sold below in the First Quarter of 2008 was $104,140, down 6.18% from last year.

        The North Market area currently has 6.9 months of inventory, indicating the market is balanced, however further excess inventory could put it in a buyers market.

        A home seller in the North Market can expect to sell a comparably priced home for an average of 96% of the list price.  The average price per square foot in the North area is $57.

 

Northwest 13

 

        Sales have declined in the Northwest Market area in comparison to First Quarter 2007 by 9.02% with 605 MLS recorded home sales!

        Listings are up in the Northwest area by 5.12% over this time last year with 1,662 homes listed and on the market.

        Contracts pending are down by 14.13% with 547 homes receiving contracts YTD through First Quarter 2007.  Contracts pending in the First Quarter last year registered at 637.

        Average sales price is higher than last years average sales price and currently stands at $175,703 representing an increase of .22% Last year; average sales price was $175,309.  Paradoxically, the median, where half the homes sold above and half the homes sold below the median sales price, are down by .67% and currently stand at $144,030.

        The Northwest Market area currently has 6.8 months of inventory.

        In March 2008, 9.8% of all listings in the Northwest area received a contract during the month, according to the Houston Hotness Index.

 

Far Northwest 14

 

        Sales declined in the Far Northwest area over first Quarter 2007 by 6.35% with 413 MLS recorded home sales!

        Listings are up in the Far Northwest Market area by 14.51% over this time last year with 1,034 homes listed and on the market.

        Contracts pending are up by 2.99% with 379 homes receiving contracts YTD through First Quarter 2008.  Contracts pending First Quarter last year registered at 368.

        Average sales price is also higher than last years average sales price and currently stands at $211,757 representing an increase of 12.69% Last year; average sales price was $187,919.

        The area currently has 6.2 months of inventory.

        In March 2008, 13.3% of all listings in the area received a contract during the month, according to the Houston Hotness Index, earning the area a 7th place ranking in the entire MLS area.

  

Conroe Montgomery County NW Area 39

 

        Sales are down by 27.11% in NW Montgomery County from this time last year over First Quarter 2007 with 242 homes sales recorded in MLS as compared to 332 last year.

        Contracts written year-to-date are down by 27.16% with 177 recorded pending contracts year-to-date as opposed to 243 last year.

        Listings are down over this time last year by 1.54%.  There are currently 961 homes on the market in the area.

        Average sales price is up over last year by 1.3.72% and currently stands at $250,857.  The median sales price is also up by 16.14% and is currently $187,500.

        The area has 8.4 months of inventory. The average price per square foot is $100 and average days to sell a home are 105, which is up from last years 101.

        The Houston Hotness Index indicates that the Conroe area sold 6.4% of its supply in the month of March.

 

East / Wood forest Area 2

 

        Sales are down in the East by 13.44% in First Quarter 2008 with 483 homes sales recorded in MLS as compared to 558 last year.

        Contracts written year-to-date are down by 5.5% or a total of 481 units recorded in MLS as pending contracts in First Quarter 2008 in contrast to 509 last year.

        Listings are up over this time last year by 261 units or 19.91%.  There are currently 1,572 homes on the market in the area.

        Average sales price is down from last year [8.80%] and currently stands at $90,592.  The median price is $85,900, down 10.47% from 2007.

        The area has 6.7 months of inventory, and is approaching a buyers market.  The average price per square foot is $59 and average days on market to sell a home are 74, which is down from last years 85.

 

 

Fort Bend Sugar Land Z 29

 

         Sugar Land area [Z29] ranked Number 1 on the Houston Hotness Index in March, with 16.2% of its listings receiving a contract during the month. 

         The hotness ratio is measures pending sales as a percent of active listings, [current buyer demand] whereas actual sales are a measure of buyer demand in previous months.  In the entire Houston MLS market area, Sugar Land had a higher percent of pending sales than any other market area in March.  As a result, Sugar Land has experienced a 20.74% decline in single-family home sales over First Quarter 2007 with 298 home sales as compared to 376 home sales last year.

         Contracts written in Sugar Land in First Quarter 2008 are 246 units pending to close, which is 10 fewer units than last year.   

         Sugar Lands average sales price is up by 7.57% over First Quarter 2007 and now stands at $259,704 as compared to last years $241,429. 

         Sugar Land homes on the market are up by 25.73% with 606 homes on the market as compared to last years 482.  However, if current demand continues as expected, this increase in inventory could very rapidly be absorbed.

         There are 4.1 months of inventory in

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